Pandemics are caused by a microorganism type which could either be bacteria (plague and cholera pandemics) but viruses are the main culprits. New viruses easily assume pandemic proportions since the humans have no inherent resistance to their strains. The classical example is the current pandemic causative SARS-CoV-2 which is a NOVEL coronavirus and having 96% matching virus sequence to bat coronavirus – one which has never ever infected a human before.
TRANSMISSIBILITY vs FATALITY
The balance between transmissibility of infection and ‘Case Fatality Rate’ (CFR) determine how deadly the pandemic can be.TRANSMISSIBILITY
How much a disease can spread through a population is the "basic reproduction number," otherwise known as R0 (pronounced "R naught," or, if you hate pirates, "arr not"). This number tells us how many people, on average, each infected person will in turn infect. An R0 larger than 1 means each sick person infects at least one other person on average, who then could infect others, until the disease spreads throughout the population. If a pandemic has to die out the R0 needs to be reduced to less than 1.
If R0 is less than 1, the disease will typically die out: Each infected person has a low chance of passing the infection along to even one additional individual. SARS-CoV-2 has a R0 value of approximately 2·5, and reduction of transmission by more than 60% will result in less than 1 (R0).
For reducing transmissibility there are only two options, besides preventable measures such as masking and physical distancing.
- Quarantine: This practice originated in the 14th century in an effort to prevent plague epidemics. Cautious port authorities required ships arriving in Venice from infected ports to sit at anchor for 40 days before landing — the origin of the word quarantine from the Italian “quaranta giorni”, or 40 days.
- Herd Immunity: The more the people are immune to a disease in a population, the fewer are available to be infected. Immunity can be assured through vaccination of at least 80% of the population.
The percentage of people who die from a disease is a determinant of CFR. On one extreme, we have rabies, which has a 99% fatality rate if untreated. On the other is the common cold, which has a relatively high R0 but is almost never fatal. Smallpox was less infectious with an R0 of 5 to 7, but its CFR of roughly 30% made it devastating.
The CFR of SARS-CoV-2 is 1.4% - meaning out of 1,000 infected people, around 14 only will die of COVID-19.
COVID-19 PANDEMIC SPREADABILITY
50% of humanity, or more than 3.9 billion people was locked down when as many as 90 countries (out of total of 195) and territories ordered the ‘stay at home’ by their respective governments in early 2020. Why?? To abort the spread and surge of infection with novel coronavirus.COVID-19: WAVES
- 1st WAVE: This is the beginning of the pandemic on account of human-to-human transfer across populations, including cross-border. But the numbers are limited and herd immunity doesn’t occur. Morbidity is high but mortality is comparatively lower.
- 2nd WAVE: When the imposed lockdown is violated because of economic compulsions, the 2nd wave is initiated. The second peak results in higher mortality, and occurs especially when the R0 of infecting virus is less than 2.4.
- 3rd WAVE: A fresh surge of cases of COVID-19 before the vaccines’ effective arrival will likely usher in the 3rd wave is early 2021.
- 4th WAVE: As the global case tally of the coronavirus disease crossed the 40 million mark, the outbreak appears to have entered the fourth and strongest (yet) wave. The latest spurt of infections is fuelled by the second wave in most European nations, the third in the United States, and the tail-end of the first wave in India and South America.
If especially the 1st wave is mild, there needs to be an endeavour to protect against future waves. The second and third waves do not have to necessarily splash on undefended shores!
FUTURE WAVES – CAN THEY BE ABORTED?
There are only 2 remedial measures to mitigate future waves of pandemic of COVID-19.
- Prevent infection – Masking, social distancing, quarantine measures
- Fight infection –
- Kill transmitted virus to body surfaces: Sanitization measures that is alcohol-based
- Kill virus attacking mouth and respiratory passage linings: Alcohol vapour inhalation
- Kill invading virus: Vaccines, immunity-enhancing & anti-viral supplements (nutraceuticals)
Vaccines are the dream saviours in pandemics and their task is to enhance antibodies and strengthen body’s defence. Ditto is achievable by supplements that target immunity modulation and promote positive health and stronger defences to fight invaders like bacteria and viruses.
|
ACTION |
NUTRACEUTICAL INGREDIENT |
|
Increase antibodies |
Vitamin C, Tinospora cordifolia (guduchi, giloy) |
|
Empower killer defence cells |
Vitamin C, Zinc (as acetate or gluconate), Tinospora cordifolia |
|
Increase viral-destructive chemicals |
Vitamin C, Zinc (as acetate or gluconate), selenium, Tinospora cordifolia, Beta glucan (naturally occurring cell walls of cereals) |
|
Decrease body cell destroying chemicals |
Nigella sativa (black cumin), Tinospora cordifolia, Zingiber officinale (ginger) |
|
Anti-viral actions (novel coronavirus) |
Zinc (as acetate or gluconate), Tinospora cordifolia, Green tea (polyphenols), Curcuma longa (turmeric) |
A judicious combo would be: Vitamin C (500 mg) + Zinc (as acetate) (30 mg) + N sativa (100 mg) + Ginger extract (50 mg) + Turmeric extract (500 mg)
It is important to register that only optimal amounts of above (as mentioned per day), relentlessly taken each day, and for the whole duration of pandemic, can hope to protect the otherwise at-risk individual.
